The Prince William Board of County Supervisors was briefed on how the county could meet the growing demand for affordable housing over the next 10 years. Several supervisors took umbrage, arguing that the region did not have the resources or necessity to plan for more affordable homes.

Paul DesJardin, director of community planning services for the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG), and Rebecca Horner, director of planning for Prince William County, presented housing “aspirations” for the county based on estimates of public need and demand.

DesJardin recounted a recent COG leadership retreat, where Seattle’s director of transportation gave an address. “His concern [for our region] was less about transportation and more the housing impacts of growth and how we can be better prepared for that,” said DesJardin.

The county is already planning on building an estimated 23,000 housing units over the next 10 years. To meet projected housing demand COG listed a goal of adding 7,000 affordable units, bringing the total to 30,000 new homes. This would be spread out to roughly 700 additional new homes per year.

Some of the board members challenged COG’s numbers and the practicality of building more homes in a county already dealing with population concerns.

“Our schools are overcrowded,” said Maureen Caddigan, Potomac district supervisor. “We’re not really excited about putting a whole bunch of houses in until we get caught up.”

“You have plans for the next ten years, but we are strapped,” she added.

“It’s easy for you to say,” Pete Candland, Gainesville district supervisor, said to DesJardin. “It’s hard for us to think about adding more homes – regardless of price point – when I-66 is a parking lot, when there’s a new fatal accident on 66 every other week.”

COG’s suggestions focused on placing 75% of the additional units in “activity centers and high-capacity transit stations,” with easy access to amenities and a variety of transportation options.

This kind of housing will be available to a large swathe of working citizens, DesJardin projected. “It’s housing for [people like] my kids. My daughter, who is going to be a school teacher and wants to come back to Northern Virginia; my other daughter who wants to be an architect,” he said. “The types of folks that we want to bring back to our region.”

“I hope we take this with a grain of salt,” chairman at large Corey Stewart said in response to the presentation.

Stewart cited concerns that Prince William County would become similar to China by focusing on affordable builds in high-density areas. “The Chinese government… decided that they wanted all of their citizens… to live in these atrocious, high-rise apartment buildings surrounding factories,” said Stewart. “You see these seas of massive sky-rises, and they’re abandoned. They were never occupied because the government had them built, but people didn’t want them.”

Instead, Stewart opined that the county’s future will see increased demands for “higher-end housing” and suburban, single-family homes – not affordable units near mass transit.

More than 5,000 applicants are currently on the waiting list for rental assistance with the county’s Housing Choice Voucher Program, which has been closed indefinitely following budget slashes. Non-profit organizations in the area agree that the list of families in need continues to lengthen.

Many housing experts are concerned about the future of Prince William County’s housing availability, particularly with the impending arrival of economic changes like Micron’s expansion and Amazon’s HQ2. These changes will likely bring more jobs to the region, but also price families out of the D.C. area and into places like Prince William County.

“We can’t support more and more people coming in from areas far outside this region,” DesJardin told supervisors.

Horner pointed to Fairfax County as an example where affordable housing policies had been successful. Fairfax implemented new policies during rezoning negotiations and followed specific housing goals in comprehensive plans. More than two-thirds of housing in Fairfax is reportedly targeted towards working-class families.

“I think it’s unrealistic,” said Stewart at the end of the discussion. “The most important thing that we have to do is to get out of the way to allow those who are providing the housing to supply the types of housing that people are demanding.”

FREDERICKSBURG — A historic slave auction block at the corner of Charles and William Street is being relocated to the Fredericksburg Area Museum, after more than two years of an intensive dialogue between city councilmembers and citizens on the block’s future.

At the July 9 city council meeting, councilmembers and representatives of the Fredericksburg Area Museum agreed that the block would be moved to the museum, contingent on the city and the museum coming to a mutually satisfying plan for the block’s funding and future.

Mayor Mary Katherine Greenlaw stressed that the block would be a loan to the museum, not a gift.

Councilor Charlie Frye was integral in the block’s relocation. He mentioned to the city council the need to address the slave block in 2017. At the time, the council voted to engage the community in discussing the block’s future and what it meant to citizens.

Moving the block

A debate has swirled over the block’s future for years. Some wanted the block to stay on the street and claimed that moving it to a museum would ruin its historical context. Others said the block was a painful reminder of Fredericksburg’s history of slavery, and that it would be better preserved and suited in a proper museum exhibit.

The city’s public works crew has agreed to oversee the removal of the block at an estimated cost of $3,000. This includes removing the block from the ground, restoring the sidewalk with compact stone, and installing a medallion where the block once stood, directing tourists to the museum.

The block will be moved to the museum on a custom pallet. Archaeologists at Dovetail Cultural Resource Group will be on-site to oversee the artifact’s removal, at the cost of approximately $2,000.

“Mindful of the intense public interest in the block, we will work as quickly as we can to make the block available to the public,” wrote Sara Poore, president and CEO of Fredericksburg Area Museum, in a letter to Fredericksburg city manager, Tim Baroody.

The block will first have an “interim display,” the details of which have not yet been specified. A more thorough permanent display will follow, which will ideally “interpret the block” and “tell the larger story of the African-American experience within the Fredericksburg region,” Poore wrote.

A date has not been set for the block’s removal, but it must be completed by the end of the year, per the council’s agreement. The city’s public works staff estimates that the job can be completed in two to three days during daytime hours to ensure that it is “clearly recognized in full view of the community.”

$20,000 study 

In 2018, the city contracted the International Coalition of Sites of Conscience (ICSC) to help develop a plan for the slave block’s future and more comprehensive facts of the city’s African American legacy. This was achieved through three phases.

Phase 1 involved small group sessions to gather stories and experiences from the community. Phase 2 encouraged collaboration with a specific focus on the slave auction block. Phase 3 delved deeper into discussion topics raised by the community in previous sessions.

The Phase 3 Final Report was released March 13, 2019, and noted that the majority of residents were concerned for the preservation and integrity of the block. An upgraded exhibit, or plexiglas barrier, was recommended at the least. The ICSC cited concerns that the present location could not provide the complete story and context that such an artifact demands.

The city paid the ICSC three payments of $6,666.67 for each phase — a total of $20,000. An additional cost of $5,394 was incurred for travel reimbursements.

‘We learn from history’

In the June 11 Fredericksburg city council meeting, Frye moved to relocate the block. This time, the council voted 6-1. Councilor Matt Kelly was the only member to vote against Frye’s motion.

“It is history, warts and all,” said Kelly. “We learn from history, not just because of the great wonderful things. We learn from history from our failings and our faults, and how we have overcome them to get to where we are today.”

Kelly pushed to postpone the vote on the relocation, citing concerns that the public had not been appropriately notified. “We are asked to be taking a vote without the vast majority of the community knowing what we’re doing,” he said.

“The public is aware of this issue,” Frye countered. He noted that city council meeting agendas are released in advance and that numerous citizens were present at the June 11 meeting. “Eventually… we have to come to a point of when we’re going to make a decision,” he said.

The block has stood at the corner of Charles and William streets since at least the 1850s. It was preserved by the Association for the Preservation of Virginia Antiquities in 1913.

Today, a plaque in front of the block reads “Fredericksburg’s Principal Auction Site in Pre-Civil War Days for Slaves and Property.”

Slave block or carriage step?

Historians have disagreed on whether the block was used for slave auctions. Newspaper clippings evidence that the corner of Charles and William streets — in front of what was once the Planters Hotel — was consistently used for auctions in Fredericksburg. However, some historians think the block was actually a carriage step, intended to serve guests at the hotel.

Frye said that the relocation “will ensure that we continue to be a place that works for everyone and a community where the people are writing the next chapters of Fredericksburg’s history.”

“As the only minority on this council tonight, it’s huge that we are at this mark,” Frye said at the June 11 meeting. “Sometimes you just have to be heard, and I come from ancestors that were never heard.”

STAFFORD — Amazon’s move to Crystal City will have far-reaching effects to the Northern Virginia metro area’s households. Even Stafford County, which is fairly removed from the D.C. corridor, should be considering how dynamics will change.

“Stafford should be thinking very proactively about the fact that we are a growing metropolitan area in the long-term,” Jeannette Chapman, deputy director and senior research associate for the Stephen S. Fuller Institute, told Potomac Local. “There are always going to be hard periods of adjustment as the region grows.”

The Stephen S. Fuller Institute has published several analyses on how the distribution of Amazon HQ2 workers will affect various regions in Northern Virginia.

Stafford leaders should consider questions such as “what role Stafford plays in this growing metro area” and “what kind of infrastructure and housing Stafford will need” to stay ahead, said Chapman.

The Stephen S. Fuller Institute estimates 0.8% of Amazon HQ2 workers would live in Stafford and Fredericksburg. That ends up being roughly 1,422 households “with a direct or indirect/induced job” from Amazon.

A direct job would be people working for HQ2, while indirect or induced jobs would arise to meet the need for an increased population. For example, new Amazon HQ2 workers will need household services and new schoolteachers to meet student increase. They would be buying more things locally, so additional retailers will be required. “Depending on the services, many of these secondary workers could be in Stafford,” Chapman noted.

However, those households will be spread out over sixteen years, which is “fewer than 70 households a year,” Chapman noted. “That probably will be hard to isolate from any other growth that is happening organically.”

Chapman believes it is less likely that Amazon workers will live in Stafford. They will probably locate in Arlington for the most part.

“The vast majority of people who live in Stafford tend to work between Fairfax and Spotsylvania,” she said. “Unless there’s a shift in the infrastructure or transportation base, it will probably be less likely that Amazon’s workforce will be out in Stafford.”

That does not mean the region will go unaffected though.

“The question to consider is what kind of market power will Amazon have, relative to other workers,” Chapman noted. “It’s probably going to be stronger because the wage distribution is on the higher end.”

The Stephen S. Fuller Institute speculates that average Amazon HQ2 wages will be $150,000.

Transportation experts are trying to get a head start on the shifting commuting dynamics. Many workers in Prince William County alone are imported from Stafford and Fredericksburg.

OmniRide is currently considering adding two lines in North Stafford with direct service to the Pentagon and L’Enfant Plaza.

“If 1,500 new people work at Amazon and a third of the land in Prince William County, for example, that’s 500 new cars on the road unless we do better with transit,” Bob Schneider, executive director of OmniRide, told Potomac Local.

Schneider said that Amazon has “a really good relationship with transit” and a good track record of providing workforce data to transportation agencies ahead of major shifts.

Although Amazon is a Crystal City/Pentagon/DC corridor based job, it will still provide a variety from being a private sector job as opposed to federal. “The district has transitioned,” said Schneider. “It’s had a blended economy over the past 20 years, but we’re getting more and more of it.”

“The secondary effects of Amazon will be wider spread and more beneficial,” Chapman said. Northern Virginia — including Stafford — doesn’t “retain workers well, which is particularly true since the Recession.” Amazon could change that.

Federal jobs are plentiful, but it can prove challenging for workers who want to branch out into other areas of work, prompting them to leave. “Having Amazon here might make it more attractive for workers to stay,” said Chapman.

PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY — Affordable housing’s future in Prince William County unclear amidst predicted federal funding cuts.

Federal subsidies for affordable housing are predicted to decline in the coming years. In Prince William County’s 2020 budget proposal, the county’s affordable housing needs are spelled out, but it remains unclear how demand will be met amidst rapid growth and change in the area.

“As federal lawmakers continue to find solutions to balance the federal budget, all indications are that funding for affordable housing will decline or at best remain level,” the Prince William County 2020 budget proposal noted.

“The largest impact from decreased funding levels is anticipated with the HCVP [Housing Choice Voucher Program] that provides rental assistance for low-income families, many of whom are elderly and/or disabled,” the proposal continued.

The HCVP is the primary means by which the county helps families in need of rental assistance or trying to afford first homes. It contains a Rental Assistance Unit and is overseen by the county’s Office of Housing and Community Development.

Currently, the HCVP receives roughly $35 million from federal funds. Additionally, the county’s general fund transfers $11,414 each year into the HCVP.

But President Trump and his administration have proposed drastic cuts to housing benefits in the 2020 fiscal year budget request, slashing funds from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) by $9.8 billion, according to the National Low Income Housing Coalition.

The cuts are concerning because the majority of Prince William County’s housing support comes from HUD. “Further funding cuts would be detrimental to local affordable housing opportunities,” the county’s 2020 proposal noted.

The vast majority of the county’s housing funds are put toward rental assistance. In 2018 $28.7 million was spent on rental assistance and in the 2020 proposed budget, $36.7 million is proposed.

A total of $94,602 is designated for affordable housing support.

Families enrolled in the HCVP typically pay 30% of their income towards rent and utilities, with the difference covered by the program. However, and rents in the county and surrounding areas continue to rise. “Increased rents increase program costs, thereby reducing the number of people served,” the 2020 proposal noted.

There are approximately 1,500 families currently being served by the HCVP, and 5,012 applicants on the waiting list, according to the 2020 proposal. But that waiting list has been closed since 2010. The goal is to have the waiting list decreased to under 2,000 families by 2020, a decade after the waiting list was closed from further applicants.

“The availability of housing affordable to households all along the income spectrum is critical to supporting sustainable, long-term local and regional economic growth,” Bill Lake, director of the county’s Office of Housing and Community Development, told Potomac Local.

“In high-cost urban areas,” such as much of Northern Virginia, “additional federal subsidies provided through state and local governments in the form of grants or deferred loans in combination with Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) equity are necessary to cover development costs in order to provide rents affordable to low-income individuals and families,” Lake said.

These types of federal subsidies have “declined precipitously” in recent years and are “under threat of elimination altogether,” he said.

Non-profit organizations are doing their share to help, but organization leaders agree that the demand is simply too high to keep up with.

Complicating the issue is a 2016 Virginia proffer law, which altered the county’s ability to ask housing developers for conditional zonings, or proffers. This stymied housing developments within the county, including affordable ones. As of 2018, no new home developments had been approved by county leaders.

Lake confirmed that funds from proffers had decreased since the new legislation was adopted.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – (Press Release) The amounts of nitrogen and phosphorus—which in excess can degrade water quality—have declined dramatically in the Potomac River since the 1980s, and are on track for further reductions, says a new COG report.

The findings of the report, Potomac River Water Quality in Metropolitan Washington, were presented today to the COG Board of Directors. The report analyzes long-term data from 1985 to 2016, rather than relying on a single year or point in time, which can be impacted by weather conditions.

Investments in and actions by the region’s wastewater treatment plants largely account for this significant progress, supporting increases in jobs and population while improving Potomac water quality.

For example, discharges of nitrogen from the region’s wastewater treatment plants have decreased by about 75 percent from their peak in the early 1990s, and phosphorous by about 94 percent from levels in the late 1970s.

“The Potomac River serves as the primary source of our region’s drinking water, but it’s also an important economic driver for our region, so this analysis reveals we have much to celebrate,” said Jon Stehle, COG Chesapeake Bay and Water Resources Policy Committee Vice Chair and City of Fairfax Councilmember. “We’re thrilled to be measuring progress in the river, but we’re also observing it, with development at National Harbor, the Wharf, and Alexandria, and renewed recreation on the water.”

The report notes other key points of progress in the Potomac watershed:

Nitrogen, phosphorous, and sediment are lower now in the free-flowing portion of the river upstream above Chain Bridge than in 1985.

The more urban part of the watershed below Chain Bridge is showing improving trends in certain areas for nitrogen—specifically monitoring stations at Northwest Anacostia, Patuxent Bowie, Accotink Creek, Western Branch, and Upper Marlboro. This is likely the result of stormwater management investments.

Data in the Potomac Estuary, where the river is influenced by tides and the Chesapeake Bay, show a mixed picture of progress. Most portions of the estuary show short and long-term improvements in nitrogen and phosphorous levels. However, dissolved oxygen, critical to thriving marine life, is improving upstream but has shown no change or degrading trends downstream.

More visible signs of progress include less algal growth and in turn more acres of underwater grasses—12 different species—particularly in the freshwater portion of the Potomac estuary.

“Despite this great news, these reductions are not yet enough to attain water quality standards,” said Stehle. “Investments by local governments and wastewater utilities in water quality improvements are clearly working, but it will take continued investment by other sectors, particularly agriculture and stormwater, to continue these positive trends and achieve water quality standards.”

The Potomac River is part of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. The region will celebrate Chesapeake Bay Awareness Week June 1-9.

PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY – Metrorail is closing six stations south of National Airport for platform repairs this summer, and Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and OmniRide are stepping in with alternative transportation options.

VRE has lowered the cost of a single-ride Amtrak Step-Up ticket from $8 to $4. It will also free up space on its trains for new riders, particularly those boarding at Franconia-Springfield or Alexandria – by giving passengers with multi-ride tickets (monthly, 5-day, 10-ride, and transit link card) the option to use any of 12 Amtrak trains listed on the current VRE schedule.

VRE is partnering with the Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation and Amtrak on this project.

Virginia’s only commuter rail service, VRE runs trains northbound into Washington, D.C. in the morning and southbound along two lines – one to Fredericksburg and the other to Manassas – in the evening. Trains on both lines stop at Union Station, L’Enfant, Crystal City, and Alexandria. Only Fredericksburg Line trains stop at Franconia-Springfield. VRE supports and accepts employer-sponsored transit benefits.

OmniRide will offer free shuttle service connecting residents with nearby VRE stations, starting May 28 and continuing until Metro completes its station repairs on the Blue and Yellow lines. Shuttles will operate four trips in the mornings, timed to meet specific VRE trains, and multiple trips in the afternoon.

More details about the times and departure points for the OmniRide shuttle service will be posted soon at OmniRide.com.

The six Blue and Yellow line stations south of Reagan National Airport are scheduled to be closed from Saturday, May 25, through Sunday, September 8. Free parking will be offered at Huntington, Franconia-Springfield, and Van Dorn Street stations, as the other three stations (Eisenhower Ave, King St-Old Town, and Braddock Road) do not have Metro parking facilities.

WOODBRIDGE -- Sentara Northern Virginia Medical Center has been approved to add a mobile PET/CT scanner to its services. This brings important cancer detection technology to the area, which had previously involved long commutes for patients.

“By offering this service locally, we are able to reduce travel burdens for patients by offering conveniently located, easily navigated services with ample complimentary parking,” Heather Causseaux, director of oncology services for Sentara, told Potomac Local.

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Editor's note: This post is unlocked for 48 hours beginning Sunday, May 12, 2019.

A lot has been happening in Vint Hill over the past five years. Its growth from military ghost town to a thriving entrepreneurial village is impressive, to say the least.

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PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY — Once a refuge for low and middle-income workers priced out of Alexandria and Arlington, Prince William County is currently struggling to meet its population’s affordable housing needs.

Nonprofit organization directors in the area confirmed that the community is in need of housing assistance beyond the scope of existing support systems. But with fewer affordable communities planned in the county and housing programs that are already filled to capacity, no clear solution is readily available.

Amazon HQ2, the online behemoth’s new headquarters in Crystal City, will have “an impact on housing, if nothing more than the hype that has been created has already affected housing prices,” said Karen DeVito, executive director of Catholics For Housing, a nonprofit in Dumfries that helps families find stable, affordable homes.

“People seem to think there will be no housing available,” DeVito continued. The demand for affordable housing in the county is “increasing daily,” and “the housing costs continue to increase, but the wages do not keep pace.”

Requests for housing assistance with Catholics For Housing began increasing last year, DeVito told Potomac Local, though it cannot be stated for sure whether that was due to Amazon’s announcement.

Amazon has promised 25,000 jobs to the Northern Virginia area. Although some of those jobs are bound to go to local workers, many experts agree that outside hires will also be brought in from across the country, escalating the area’s already sky-high housing rates.

In Northern Virginia, a family of four making $58,000 is considered low-income. That is lower than 50% of Prince William County’s Area Median Income (AMI), a number calculated for all cities by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. In 2018, that number was $117,200.

The average rent for a one-bedroom home in Prince William County is $1,425. For a two-bedroom, it is $1,600. The National Low Income Housing Coalition has generated a report indicating that a minimum wage worker would need to work four full-time jobs to sustain an average two-bedroom apartment in Northern Virginia.

Patricia Johanson, executive director of Good Shepherd Housing Foundation — a nonprofit in Woodbridge that helps low-income families and those with mental illness find homes — told Potomac Local that many of the people who come to them are only making roughly $30,000 to $40,000 when regulations are taken into account.

Good Shepherd has three group homes, ten apartments, and one townhouse that they rent out for much lower rates. For example, a three-bedroom rental with them is $600 to $700 a month — roughly $1,000 less than the county’s average.

“Whenever we have an affordable housing rental open up, we get upwards of 25 applications from families within the first few days alone,” said Johanson. “And it is not a quick application. It’s four or five pages and you have to have supporting documentation.”=

Prince William County offers rental assistance in the form of a housing choice voucher program, but applications to join the program have been closed since December 2010. At that point, they had more than 8,500 families.

“Currently, we are around 1,500 [families],” Billy Lake, director of the county’s Office of Housing and Community Development (OHCD), told Potomac Local. “We are only calling people from the waiting list when someone goes off the program and the funding for the voucher is freed for another household.”

As of now, it is unclear when or whether the housing choice voucher program will reopen.

Prince William County’s department of social services also has a coordinated entry system which is designed to ensure fair and equal housing access by identifying specific needs and referring people to different programs. But keeping up with the demand is challenging.

“There’s such a long list of people in need,” Johanson noted. “There just aren’t enough programs to help all of the folks that need help in Prince William County.”

Finding developers who want to build affordable communities is also a challenge, compounding the housing problem.

Many of the new communities coming to Prince William County are high-end or “luxury” and very few look to be affordable housing. Out of 222 planned communities listed on New Home Source, only 33 will offer homes for less than $375,000. More than half of the 222 communities are in the $400,000 to $700,000 range.

“The private market does a good job of meeting demand for housing for higher-income households; however, housing for low-income households is difficult and expensive to provide,” said Lake. “High construction costs and market prices for land, along with costs associated with the development review and approval process and state and local regulations, all contribute to the challenge with making projects with lower rents or prices ‘pencil out.’”

DeVito concurred. “Builders can make more money building ‘McMansions,’” she said.

Federal subsidies — such as grants, deferred loans and Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) equity — have “declined precipitously and are now under threat of elimination altogether,” Lake said.

“To increase housing affordability, it is imperative that local governments examine and adopt strategies to replace and expand beyond these lost federal resources,” he continued.

DeVito opined that affordable dwelling unit ordinances were essential to ensuring communities provide for limited-income households.