According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, residents in Northern Virginia and surrounding areas saw their first raindrops in almost 40 days this Sunday. The raindrops offered much-needed relief from a prolonged dry spell that has placed the region under moderate to severe drought conditions.

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Update 11:45 a.m. — From Stafford fire and rescue’s Facebook page:

Due to dry conditions, low relative humidity and anticipated gusty winds, the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS)has issued an Elevated Fire Danger across most of Northern and Central Virginia today. As a result, the Stafford County Fire Marshal’s Office is implementing a ban on all outdoor burning for Friday, November 8th until 7AM Saturday, November 9th in Stafford County.
In addition to no open air burning, this is a friendly reminder to be extremely cautious when disposing of cigarette butts and matches and keep vehicles and equipment that could spark off of dry vegetation, like grass.

Original post — Good morning! Here’s a look at today’s weather forecast from the National Weather Service.

Yesterday’s cold front has moved down into the Carolinas, bringing cooler, drier air into our area. Early risers may have noticed some clouds, but they’ll clear out quickly, leaving us lots of sunshine and a breeze from the northwest. Temperatures will be mild, with highs reaching about 74°F. Gusty winds could pick up in the afternoon, especially in higher areas and north of US-50 and I-66, with gusts of 20-30 mph possible.

While it’s dry today, this windier weather is expected to continue into the evening, so take caution if you’re planning any outdoor fires, as conditions are primed for rapid spread.

Tonight, we’re looking at mostly clear skies, temperatures dropping to around 44°F, and a northwest breeze of 8-10 mph. Moving into Saturday, expect more sunshine but cooler temps, with a high near 59°F. Clouds will increase Saturday night as we head into Sunday, with the possibility of afternoon showers and temperatures near 60°F.

Enjoy the clear, crisp start to the weekend!

Crews from the Northern Virginia Electrical Cooperative (NOVEC), along with contractors and support from other electric cooperatives, continue to restore power after a severe storm that hit Northern Virginia on Thursday, August 29, 2024. The storm caused significant damage, particularly in Stafford County and southern Fauquier County, leading to widespread outages and extensive repairs.

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Yesterday, Thursday, August 29, 2024, Northern Virginia experienced a severe storm that brought extensive rain, hail, and damaging winds, affecting areas including Prince William, Stafford, Manassas, and Fredericksburg.

Chris Strong from the National Weather Service Baltimore-Washington office noted the unusual nature of the storm, highlighting that "one of the biggest things that was more uncommon about that event was just how little wind there was in the general atmosphere for these storms to move around." This lack of atmospheric movement allowed the storms to "evolve and develop in place," leading to prolonged periods of heavy rain and persistent lightning across several areas.

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The National Weather Service has issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Stafford County, including Aquia Harbour and King George, effective until 3:15 p.m. today. This warning comes as a series of storm clusters, currently over Johnstown, PA, and extending across Lake Erie, are expected to intensify as they approach the region.

As of 9:45 a.m., satellite and radar imagery showed several clusters of showers accompanied by occasional lightning moving southeastward.

Meteorologists are monitoring these storm clusters to determine whether they will maintain their strength and become severe as they encounter increasing instability during the day. The potential for severe weather arises as these systems interact with a corridor of weak convergence, noted from western Maryland southeastward towards Fredericksburg. This area is expected to strengthen with additional waves of activity pivoting around an upper-level low to the north.

Despite some limiting factors such as poor mid-level lapse rates and modest atmospheric forcing, scattered convection with a few strong to severe thunderstorms is possible this afternoon and early evening. The primary concern with these storms is the risk of localized damaging wind gusts, with a conditional low-end threat for severe hail if supercell structures develop.

The National Weather Service also notes that following today’s storms, temperatures will likely dip into the mid-60s to lower 70s overnight, with potential for development, particularly in areas that receive rainfall.

 

The National Weather Service has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for the region until 10 p.m. on Sunday, August 18. A slow-moving cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. The highest chances of precipitation are expected this afternoon and evening as the front moves across the area.

We can expect the storms to produce damaging wind gusts and isolated instances of flooding. The potential for large hail or an isolated tornado also exists due to increasing instability in the atmosphere, according to the National Weather Service.

A Flood Watch has also been issued from 2 to 8 p.m. this afternoon through this evening for parts of Northeast Maryland and the Washington, D.C. area. Some storms may produce rainfall rates of one to two inches per hour, leading to isolated instances of urban flooding in vulnerable areas.

Temperatures are expected to range from the 70s to 80s, with overnight lows dropping into the 60s to low 70s. After the cold front passes, dry conditions and cooler temperatures will return next week as high pressure builds in from the northwest.

The National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Watch in effect from 6:19 a.m. to 2 p.m. on Friday, Aug. 9. The watch follows multiple reports of a tornado touching down in Caroline County yesterday evening. The storm is predicted to bring significant rainfall to the area, with risks of flooding possible. The Rappahannock River last flooded downtown Fredericksburg on Jan. 10, 2024. It crested at 19.1 feet at 5:30pm, impacting Old Mill Park and encroaching trails along Fall Hill Avenue. Fredericksburg has already closed Old Mill Park in anticipation of Tropical Storm Debby.

Fredericksburg: Tropical Storm Debby’s main system is moving north into Virginia from North Carolina.  The current forecast track is that the main part of the storm will remain to our west, generally travelling from south to north along the Interstate 81 corridor. That said, the Fredericksburg area will see significant rainfall, with rain bands that could be heavy at times beginning mid-afternoon today, Thursday, through the overnight hours, and decreasing sometime around mid-afternoon tomorrow.  This system has also spawned thunderstorm and tornado activity, so please stay alert and continue to monitor conditions in case those develop.

Here are some updates from the City of Fredericksburg, along with some tips and updates as the storm moves through Virginia:

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To mitigate the effects of drought, Fauquier County residents, businesses, and government agencies should adopt various water conservation practices, including efficient use of household appliances and mindful irrigation techniques.

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