In a recent political survey conducted by John Zogby Strategies, the competition between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump appears to be heating up in Virginia, with Trump holding a narrow lead.

The poll, conducted from April 13 to April 21, 2024, involved 23,683 likely voters across the U.S., 586 of whom were from Virginia.

In Virignia, the results show Trump slightly ahead of Biden, capturing 45.4% of the vote compared to Biden’s 44.9%. The margin of error for the Virginia subset is higher than the overall survey’s ±0.6%, emphasizing the close nature of the contest and the potential for shifts as the campaign progresses.

In terms of party alignment in Virginia:

• 35% identified as Democrats
• 33% identified as Republicans
• 31% identified as Independents

Voter sentiments in Virginia also show varied opinions on candidate favorability. 45% of respondents viewed Biden very unfavorably and somewhat favorably 21.9%, reflecting a polarized perception among voters. Conversely, 48.4% viewed Trump very unfavorably but also received a high very favorable rating from 24.2% of those surveyed, indicating similarly strong sentiments on both sides.

“The main thing to gather from this survey is that Virginia remains a far more purple state than many national political observers seem to think. The fact that this poll is well within the margin of error demonstrates that both political parties would be wise to focus on Virginia in 2024, as they did in several previous election cycles – but not in 2020,” said Professor of Political Science and International Affairs & Director, Center for Leadership and Media Studies Dr. Stephen J. Farnsworth.

“The big challenge for both campaigns is the high level of voter negativity regarding the candidates selected by the two major parties. Rather than focus on trying to win over the small number of voters who are not committed to one major party or the other, I expect both campaigns will try to focus on making their case by describing how awful it would be for the country if the other side were to win the White House,” added Farnsworth. “They will focus on getting people who would vote for their side if they showed up to vote fearful enough of the other side to cast a ballot. This strategy will also discourage voting for a third-party candidate, as walking away one’s less disliked major party may mean that the more disliked major party ends up winning the election.”

Similar to its predecessor four years ago, the 2024 Presidential Election has been characterized by a race to the bottom, with mud-slinging and negative campaigning taking center stage.

“The difference this year is that voters have had the opportunity to realize and experience the personal impact of the two candidate’s respective policies. While both campaigns may have the opportunity to capitalize on the negatives of the opposing candidate, only the Trump campaign has the ability to link those negatives on President Biden to the cost of living and public safety issues that will decide this election,” said Cameron Hamilton, a Republican seeking to Replace Rep. Abigail Spanberger in Virginia’s 7th District (eastern Prince William, Stafford, Spotsylvania counties, and Fredericksburg).

Hamilton is one of eight Republicans and nine Democrats who have filed to run in a June 18 Primary Election. The 7th District and neighboring 10th District races in western Prince William and Loudoun counties will be some of the most expensive in the nation this fall, and they will likely drive Virginia voters to the polls more than the Presidential candidates.

“Both President Trump and President Biden are lightning rods that motivate their opposition and inspire their respective base of voters. For this reason, I think we will see lower engagement and enthusiasm but a similar turnout as in past elections. I think this also opens the door for our down-ballot races for Senate and Congress to play a big part in motivating voters and getting them engaged when they otherwise may be inclined to sit this political season out,” said Prince William County Republican Committee Chairman Jacob Alderman.

Eugene Vindman, a Democrat who spoke against President Trump at his first impeachment, has raised nearly $4 million in the 7th District primary race, a phenomenal haul for a local race. Most of the cash is from donors in California and New York.

Derrick Anderson has raised the most money among the Republican candidates for Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, with a total of $888,595.

“Virginia’s colleges are not preschools where petulant children need to learn basic rules and manners. Campus officials and law enforcement officers told these young adults the rules. They broke the rules, and now they’ll face the consequences,” said Delegate Todd Gilbert.

“I applaud Governor Youngkin, the Attorney General, and our law enforcement community for the even-handed way they have handled this difficult situation. Some members of the House of Delegates – including Dels. Rozia Henson (Woodbridge), Adele McClure, Joshua Cole (Fredericksburg), and Nadarius Clark – fail to recognize the unlawful nature of some of these protests. They have also associated themselves with the worst of the bigoted messages blaring from speakers on campuses.”

Gilber’s comments come after Democrats issued a statement condemning police action to reign in violent protests on campuses.

Merianne Jensen, the newly appointed Vice Chair of the Prince William County Republican Committee, discussed her journey into politics and outlined her plans to invigorate the local Republican Party and secure victories in upcoming elections.

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Early voting for the June Primary Elections in Stafford County begins on Friday, May 3, 2024. The election is on Tuesday, June 18, 2024.

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In a letter addressed to the Chair and the Supervisors of Prince William County, Commonwealth’s Attorney Amy Ashworth outlined her intention to withhold prosecution of certain misdemeanor charges, effective May 1, 2024, if county leaders don’t give her more employees.

According to the letter, the Prince William County Prosecutor’s Office is operating with 26 fewer positions than required.  A recent time study showed the office has a deficit of seven attorneys and 19 administrative staff, Ashworth wrote.

On April 18, 2024, supervisors voted in a straw poll and decided to fund an additional four attorneys and four administrative staff for Ashworth’s office. Ashworth asked for 16 new people and asserted that the office cannot sustain its current level of service and must take steps to reduce the caseload. As it stands, Ashworth is set to receive $13 million from the county government to operate her office for the coming fiscal year, starting July 1, 2024. The figure does not include funding from Manassas and Manassas Park cities, for which Ashworth also prosecutes criminal cases.

In response to the straw poll, Ashworth wrote supervisors and listed a series of Class 1 and 2 misdemeanors to which she may no longer assign a prosecutor, including petit larceny, shoplifting, narcotic charges, underage alcohol offenses, disorderly conduct, obstruction of justice, escapes, obscenity, false identification and false report to police, destruction of property, trespassing, reckless driving (unless fatal), and all traffic and operator license misdemeanors.

The Prince William Board of County Supervisors is set to approve its entire FY 2025 budget tomorrow.

“The bottom line is that this office was not properly staffed and funded for decades as the County grew up around us,” Ashworth wrote in an email to Potomac Local. “The time study was able to finally give us a clear staffing standard across the state for all prosecutor’s offices.”

Ashworth, a Democrat, was re-elected to office in November 2023 and is in the first year of her second four-year term.

“The Commonwealth of Virginia does not fund prosecution of misdemeanor cases – only felonies. In smaller jurisdictions, it is easier for the prosecutor to just handle all the misdemeanors as well. However, other large jurisdictions do not handle all of the misdemeanors as [Prince William County] does,” Ashworth adds.

Acknowledging the impact of this decision, Ashworth emphasized the need to focus limited resources on misdemeanors deemed most critical, such as DUI, weapon offenses, and violent crime.

Ashworth’s threats to cut prosecutorial services garnered a quick response from supervisors.

“She claims her predecessor understaffed his office. I don’t recall anyone claiming Paul Ebert [Ashworth’s predecessor] didn’t prosecute enough. The question is efficiency. If Fairfax can do more with less, why can’t she?” asked Gainesville District Supervisor Bob Wier.

During a presentation earlier this month, Ashworth told the Board of County Supervisors that of her 54 office employees, 29 were prosecutors when she took over from her predecessor Paul Ebert, Virginia’s longest-serving prosecutor from 1968 until his retirement in 2019. Since that time dozens of full-time positions have been added to the Commonwealth Attorney’s office, resulting in nearly 80 employees.

“By supporting eight new positions in FY25, in addition to fulfilling the three-year staffing plan introduced by Ms. Ashworth in 2021, I am confident that this Board has provided the Office of the Commonwealth’s Attorney with the necessary resources to fulfill its prosecutorial duties to our residents,” said Occoquan District Supervisor Kenny Boddye. “These new positions will make our Commonwealth’s Attorney office the largest in Virginia, eclipsing even the staffing levels of Fairfax County, which serves more than two times as many residents.”

Since she took over, the Board of County Supervisors has increased funding for her office by $6.4 million and added 32 employees. This represents a cumulative percentage increase of about 93.5% over five years. All the while, Ashworth is pursuing fewer cases than her predecessor, choosing to indict 75 felonies on average per month compared to the 350-per-month average Ebert pursued.

Despite Ashworth having successfully lobbied to increase her office budget to the largest it has ever been in county history, she has the fewest average prosecutions of her predecessors. Meanwhile, the county’s murder rate has doubled, and violent crime increased by 70% since 2019.

In a letter to constituents, Coles District Supervisor Yesli Vega called Ashworth’s letter a “dangerous temper tantrum” describing it as “a stain on the Commonwealth’s Attorney’s office and unbecoming of an elected official.” She also questioned how a 2% increase in caseload could represent a $2 million budget request.

Both Weir and Vega pointed to neighboring Fairfax County, which cut misdemeanor prosecutions and has subsequently seen a rise in overall crime, with Vega rhetorically asking, “How has that worked out for them?”

In addition to the potential for increased crime in Prince William, the change would also increase the workload of Prince William County Police officers. In her letter, Ashworth clarified that while her office will no longer prosecute these offenses, the burden of prosecution will shift to the arresting police officer, who must handle traditional prosecutor duties such as subpoenaing witnesses, answering discovery, and presenting evidence in court.

“There will be an additional burden on the department in that we will need to train officers on how to do the legal courtroom work traditionally done by the Commonwealth Attorney’s Office,” said Prince William County Police Chief Peter Newsham. “This will also likely result in officers spending more time in court and less time in the community.”

Newsham added that there likely would be a “negative impact on conviction rates during the learning curve.” adding, “Our officers are committed, dedicated, and professional, but they are not lawyers.”

“I don’t think this board responds well to threats and Prince William County does not have an unlimited source of revenue,” Weir added when asked if Ashworth’s threats would lead to him consider changing his vote. “We’re growing the government at a level that is unsustainable given the revenues.”

The Board of County Supervisors meets at 7:30 p.m. Tuesday, April 23, 2024, at the McCoart County Government Building, 1 County Complex Court in Woodbridge. The meeting is open to the public and will be streamed online.

Alan Gloss is a freelance reporter for Potomac Local News.

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President Biden is scheduled to deliver a speech today at Prince William Forest Park. The event, to commemorate Earth Day, will commence at 2:45 p.m. Those interested can watch the speech online.

A portion of the 13,000-acre recreational area near Quantico Marine Corps Base is closed to visitors to accommodate them.

The closure and restrictions imposed on the park are in response to a request from the United States Secret Service to ensure a secure staging area and perimeter with adequate standoff distance to safeguard the President during his visit, federal documents state. These temporary measures are also aimed at enabling the Secret Service to conduct security sweeps of the area, secure the landing zone for the President’s arrival, and ensure public safety.

The National Park Service, assessing the situation, deems the closure necessary to protect visitors during the Secret Service’s operations considering the nature of their activities. Although the National Park Service explored the possibility of an alternate or smaller area, the Secret Service determined that lesser restrictive measures or an alternate location would not suffice based on their security assessment.

This visit marks President Biden’s second to Prince William County in 2024. He kicked off his campaign with Vice President Kamala Harris in January at the Hylton Performing Arts Center. President Obama’s visit to Prince William County in 2012 marked the last time a Democrat running for the White House visited the area, once regarded as a bellwether for national elections. Obama held a campaign rally at Richard G. Pfitzner Stadium, formerly the home of the Fredericksburg Nationals (Potomac Nationals), where he arrived via helicopter.

Eugene Vindman has apologized for posing for a photo while holding the Virginia State Flag adopted by the Confederate state government during the Civil War.

Potomac Local was the first to report on the photo on Monday, April 15, 2024. Vindman asked the person who posted it to X, formerly Twitter, to remove it from the social media platform.

According to the Democrat, a congressional candidate who seeks to replace Abigail Spanberger in Virginia’s 7th District (Prince William, Stafford, Spotsylvania, and Fredericksburg) in a June 18, 2024, Primary Election, he posed for the photo after delivering a keynote speech at the Ukrainian Action Summit in Washington, D.C.

“Unbeknownst to me, in one of these pictures was a flag of Virginia spanning the Civil War era. When I glanced at the flag, I did not link it to the Civil War era. When I realized this mistake, I directed my team to reach out to this attendee to ask him to take the picture down, as it in no way aligns with any of my core values and background. I apologize,” Vindman wrote in a statement on X.

Democrats and Republicans were quick to criticize Vindman today on social media. The most notable, Virignia State Senator Louise Lucas, posted on X, “How could someone who wants to represent us be so ignorant of our history?”

Other Democrats seeking the party’s nomination in the 7th District race chimed in, too.

“One thing you’ll never see me do is pose for a picture with a Confederate flag,” said a former Virginia House of Delegates member, Elizabeth Guzman.

“It’s disheartening to see that someone who wants to represent so many people of color pose behind a confederate flag,” said Andrea Bailey, another Democrat seeking the nomination and a Prince William County Board of Supervisors member.

Republican Derrick Anderson, who’s in a race of multiple Republicans seeking that party’s nomination, said, “Yet another reason why this newcomer isn’t fit to serve Virginia’s 7th District.”

Vindman has raised more than $1.7 million in the race to replace Spanberger, more than any other Democrat or Republican seeking the congressional seat. Much of that cash has come from out-of-state contributors from places like California and New York.

The 25-year Army veteran, originally from Ukraine, was a crucial witness in the impeachment trial of President Donald Trump. He continues to campaign on that fact, all the while facing criticism from members of his party for being a political newcomer and from residents who question his intentions of being a white man running against a field of black female Democrats.

During a Democrat voter forum at the Dr. A.J. Ferlazzo Government Building in Woodbridge on March 27, 2024, a white man asked Vindman, “Currently, our Congressional representative is a white woman. Do you think it’s time to pass that torch to someone of color? And considering we have so many strong women of color running for this seat.”

“I’m an immigrant, and I’m Jewish, fleeing a bigoted communist regime. So I understand those perspectives,” Vindman responded.

Vindman has also been criticized for not being active locally in the Democratic Party. Delegate Joshua Cole asked, “I’m sorry – who is this? I’ve never seen this person in our area. At. All.”

During the March 27 forum, Vindman, currently a Prince William County resident, defended himself, saying he has lived in the 7th District since 2016. “My kids have gone to school here. I think for Northern Virginia, I qualify as a long-term resident since I’ve been here since 2016 in this transitory community,” said Vindman.

The three-term incumbent Spanberger announced her run for governor of Virginia in 2025. She seeks to replace Glenn Youngkin (R), whom the Virginia State Constitution prohibits from seeking a second term.

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A photo of Eugene Vindman holding a confederate state flag of Virginia appeared on X, formerly Twitter.

Vindman, a Democrat and a 25-year Army veteran was a key witness in President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial. He is running to replace Abigail Spanberger (D) in the U.S. House of Representatives in Virginia’s 7th District, which includes Prince William, Stafford, and Spotsylvania counties and Fredericksburg.

Vindman and others are holding the flag used by the Confederate Virginia State Government from 1861 to 1865. The flag is similar to the Commonwealth flag used today, with a few noted differences. There are some color variations,  the woman representing Roman virtue is fully clothed, and the king tyrant on the ground is looking up at the woman.

Today’s Virginia flag shows the woman’s exposed breast and the king tyrant lying dead on the ground.

A total of 11 Confederate states adopted state flags during the Civil War. The original X post with the photo of Vindman holding the flag has been deleted.

“Colonel Vindman served our country abroad and by standing up to Donald Trump’s corruption, so the notion that he would stand by any sort of Confederate flag is absolutely absurd,” Jeremy Levinson, a campaign spokesman, told Potomac Local News.

Vindman, a Lake Ridge resident and political newcomer, has raised $1.75 million in campaign contributions — more than any other Democrat or Republican in the race. A Primary Election on June 18 will decide which Democrat and Republican candidate will compete for the seat during the November 2024 General Election.

The majority of Vindman’s campaign donations have come from outside of the state. The Federal Election Commission sent a letter to Eugene Vindman’s campaign last month asking for clarifications on his end-of-year finance report about many unitemized donations, reports the Virginia Scope.

Levinson told Potomac Local News that Vindman is focused on the 7th District, has participated in multiple Democratic voter candidate forums, and has attended numerous fundraisers inside the homes of supporters who live there.

The three-term incumbent Spanberger announced her run for Virginia Governor in 2025, seeking to replace Glenn Youngkin (R), whom the Virginia State Constitution prohibited from seeking a second term.

The Federal Election Commission sent a letter to Eugene Vindman’s campaign last month asking for clarifications on his finance report about many unitemized donations, reports Virginia Scope Political Newsletter.

Vindman is a Dale City resident and has raised more cash than any other Democrat seeking the party nomination to run in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District to replace Abigail Spanberger, who is running for governor. A Primary Election will be held on June 18, 2024.