In a recent political survey conducted by John Zogby Strategies, the competition between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump appears to be heating up in Virginia, with Trump holding a narrow lead.
The poll, conducted from April 13 to April 21, 2024, involved 23,683 likely voters across the U.S., 586 of whom were from Virginia.
In Virignia, the results show Trump slightly ahead of Biden, capturing 45.4% of the vote compared to Biden’s 44.9%. The margin of error for the Virginia subset is higher than the overall survey’s ±0.6%, emphasizing the close nature of the contest and the potential for shifts as the campaign progresses.
In terms of party alignment in Virginia:
- 35% identified as Democrats
- 33% identified as Republicans
- 31% identified as Independents
Voter sentiments in Virginia also show varied opinions on candidate favorability. 45% of respondents viewed Biden very unfavorably and somewhat favorably 21.9%, reflecting a polarized perception among voters. Conversely, 48.4% viewed Trump very unfavorably but also received a high very favorable rating from 24.2% of those surveyed, indicating similarly strong sentiments on both sides.
“The main thing to gather from this survey is that Virginia remains a far more purple state than many national political observers seem to think. The fact that this poll is well within the margin of error demonstrates that both political parties would be wise to focus on Virginia in 2024, as they did in several previous election cycles – but not in 2020,” said Professor of Political Science and International Affairs & Director, Center for Leadership and Media Studies Dr. Stephen J. Farnsworth.
“The big challenge for both campaigns is the high level of voter negativity regarding the candidates selected by the two major parties. Rather than focus on trying to win over the small number of voters who are not committed to one major party or the other, I expect both campaigns will try to focus on making their case by describing how awful it would be for the country if the other side were to win the White House,” added Farnsworth. “They will focus on getting people who would vote for their side if they showed up to vote fearful enough of the other side to cast a ballot. This strategy will also discourage voting for a third-party candidate, as walking away one’s less disliked major party may mean that the more disliked major party ends up winning the election.”
Similar to its predecessor four years ago, the 2024 Presidential Election has been characterized by a race to the bottom, with mud-slinging and negative campaigning taking center stage.
“The difference this year is that voters have had the opportunity to realize and experience the personal impact of the two candidate’s respective policies. While both campaigns may have the opportunity to capitalize on the negatives of the opposing candidate, only the Trump campaign has the ability to link those negatives on President Biden to the cost of living and public safety issues that will decide this election,” said Cameron Hamilton, a Republican seeking to Replace Rep. Abigail Spanberger in Virginia’s 7th District (eastern Prince William, Stafford, Spotsylvania counties, and Fredericksburg).
Hamilton is one of eight Republicans and nine Democrats who have filed to run in a June 18 Primary Election. The 7th District and neighboring 10th District races in western Prince William and Loudoun counties will be some of the most expensive in the nation this fall, and they will likely drive Virginia voters to the polls more than the Presidential candidates.
“Both President Trump and President Biden are lightning rods that motivate their opposition and inspire their respective base of voters. For this reason, I think we will see lower engagement and enthusiasm but a similar turnout as in past elections. I think this also opens the door for our down-ballot races for Senate and Congress to play a big part in motivating voters and getting them engaged when they otherwise may be inclined to sit this political season out,” said Prince William County Republican Committee Chairman Jacob Alderman.
Eugene Vindman, a Democrat who spoke against President Trump at his first impeachment, has raised nearly $4 million in the 7th District primary race, a phenomenal haul for a local race. Most of the cash is from donors in California and New York.
Derrick Anderson has raised the most money among the Republican candidates for Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, with a total of $888,595.
Donald Trump won his first victory in Prince William County during a dual Presidential Primary on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2023.
The presumptive nominee won handily in the county, with 60% of the vote, 18,768 votes. His Republican Primary opponent, Nikki Haley, won just three of the county’s 84 election precincts, 11,313 votes.
Republicans, or those who voted in the Republican Primary (Virginia law allows anyone, from any party, to vote in a Republican or Democrat Primary Election) in Precinct 615, dubbed “Commons,” at the Neabsco Commons neighborhood flanked by the Northern Virginia Community College Woodbridge Campus and Stonebridge at Potomac Town Center, thought the former South Carolina Governor would be a better choice.
Voters in the Antietam Precinct, number 514 in Lake Ridge, and the Potomac Shores Precinct near Dumfries also supported Haley.
Trump’s win in Prince William County marks a shift in the country’s electorate. In 2016, the U.S. Senator from Florida, Marco Rubio, won the county with 15,540 votes to Trump’s 15,348.
“There was little chance that the Republican Primary was going to be close, and Haley’s campaign was on life support going into Super Tuesday. The circumstances were good news for Donald Trump in northern Virginia’s outer ring suburban communities and elsewhere,” said Professor and Director, Center for Leadership and Media Studies at Mary Washington University Stephen Farnsworth. “Trump’s stronger performance in the suburbs in this primary, compared to his weaker performance in 2016, demonstrates that Virginia’s suburbs remain competitive.”
Prince William and Loudoun counties bucked the trend in Northern Virignia, which saw voters in Arlington, Alexandria, and Fairfax choose Haley over Trump. A total of 30,030 votes were cast in the Republican Primary in Prince William, compared to 18,608 votes cast in the county for the Democrat primary.
In 2017, one year into Trump’s presidency, Democrats came out in droves and flipped Prince William County’s reliably Republican Virginia House of Delegates and Senate seats from red to blue, electing a wave of new Democrats. While the trend has primarily contained, Republicans showed signs of life in the 2023 Elections, with wins for Delegate Ian Lovejoy (R-22, Bristow) and Erica Trendinnick, a Republican who flipped the Brentsville District seat on the county school board overseeing the second-largest school division in the state.
House Districts 21, held by Democrat Josh Thomas, and Distirct 22 held by Lovejoy, are considered competitive districts, according to VPAP.
“While only a sliver of Virginia voters participate in primaries Trump’s strong showing demonstrates that the most motivated Republicans continue to support him,” added Farnsworth.
South of Prince William in Stafford County, Trump won handily with 67% of the vote, winning 10,002 votes to Haley’s 4,488. Haley won zero precincts in Stafford County.
In the region’s cities, Trump won Manassas, Manassas Park, and Fredericksburg with 64%, 63%, and 50% of the vote, respectively.
Trump won Virginia, one of many states he picked up during the Super Tuesday contest. Haley is expected to drop out of the race.
“Voters are upset with the direction our country is heading in; for example, a recent Roanoke College poll showed that more than 60% of Virginians disapprove of the way Biden is handling the Presidency,” said Josh Quill, a 2023 candidate for the House of Delegates in Prince William County. “Republicans want lower taxes, safer communities, and stronger immigration enforcement, all things they experienced during the Trump Administration. President Trump enjoys an incumbent-like status that is difficult to overcome.”
Democrats came out in force for President Joe Biden, who won Virginia over primary challengers Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips, who won zero precincts in Prince William and Stafford counties, Manassas, Manassas Park, or Fredericksburg.
