Anderson: Student population projection ‘errors are significant’

Proposed new residential developments in Prince William County — developments that need approval by the Planning Commission and Board of Supervisors — have become one of the most contentious issues of our time.

Why? Because most new homes (if not senior living) could eventually house children who will use public education in our county, a county that currently has overcrowded classrooms and depends on trailers while new schools and additions are being built.

With that in mind, there is growing activism in our county to stop all development until the population, schools, r, ads and jobs are all in perfect alignment. Prior to almost every vote on proposed developments by Planning Commissioners and Board of County Supervisors, residents speak up about current and projected school overcrowding and demand denials to most developments.

Prior to the votes Planning Commissioners and Supervisors weigh all aspects of proposals including Impact Statements from Prince William County Schools (PWCS). The Impact Statement lists the number of projected students based on the number and type of homes and whether current or planned schools have (or will have) capacity to accommodate the new students.

While analyzing many of these Impact Statements and comparing them to PWCS Capital Improvement Plans and county planning documents, my office began to find some student projections that were erroneous and excessive (e.g., projections based on: inactive proposals, duplicate proposals for the same land, etc.).

This was concerning because voting yes or no on a development proposal is a very serious matter affecting not only residents, developers, and landowners, but also county budget decisions for public works, safety, education, and transportation. One cannot accurately set tax rates, suggest bond referendums, purchase school sites, and plan county infrastructure without accurate information.

After further analysis and vetting the problems with PWCS and county staff, I feel the errors are significant and that processes must be improved to ensure more realistic student projections in the future.

Our current reality is that we need more classrooms in certain areas to eliminate trailer classrooms and meet population projections. But, we must have accurate information to be good stewards of taxpayer money as we plan multi-million dollar school capital improvements over the next decade.

I do not believe that all residential development should stop, especially in light of predictions that our population will grow by 100,000 by 2040. I believe that ongoing, well-planned development is a sign of a healthy community.

My philosophy is that we should ensure homes for all levels of income, continue to work very hard to bring in more businesses, ensure jobs for all levels of education, improve our county comprehensive plan with agreement about specified areas for high and low residential density, make drastic improvements in public transit, and build schools and additions based on accurate information!

I am not casting blame for these errors as fingers could point in many directions, I am challenging our schools and county to join me in improving planning processes to ensure accurate information. Our Joint Board Committee for Capital that we started two years ago between Prince William County School Board members and Prince William County Supervisors is beginning to tackle these planning issues.