Editor’s Note:
This is the final part of our three-part series exploring Virginia Railway Express’ vision for the future. Thank you for following along.
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Part 3: Paying for the Vision: The Big Costs — and the Bigger Opportunities
Building a 21st-century rail system doesn’t come cheap.
Expanding VRE’s service by 2030 will require $35 million in additional capital investment. Stretch that vision out to 2050, and the total bill for infrastructure climbs to more than $3.4 billion. That’s roughly $1.2 billion more than projected revenues between 2025 and 2050.
VRE officials say it’s a smart investment. Expanding rail service is significantly cheaper — and greener — than building and maintaining new highway lanes, which cost between $27 million and $128 million per mile in Northern Virginia.
“Trains cost less than traffic,” VRE planner Nick Ruiz said. “And they make our communities safer, healthier, and more connected.”
Funding the plan will require a combination of state, federal, and regional support — plus ongoing negotiations with freight railroads like CSX, which still control parts of the corridor.
Without CSX cooperation and major infrastructure expansions, including new bridges and added track south of Fredericksburg, VRE’s growth will face serious bottlenecks.
CEO Rich Dalton cautioned that while VRE’s ridership trends are moving in the right direction, the future remains uncertain.
Factors like regional housing supply, telework patterns, and evolving job markets could all impact whether growth sustains.
Still, he said, there’s reason for optimism: “When people are ready to return to the office — or ready to travel more — VRE is there for them. That’s a strong foundation to build on.”
Another challenge: operating revenue. VRE projects it will need 153% more operating funding by 2050 compared to today to run its expanded service — a reality that will require tough conversations about fares, subsidies, and partnerships.
However, board members emphasized the importance of thinking long-term.
“This is about the next generation,” one said. “The decisions we make today will shape how Northern Virginia moves for decades to come.”
Thanks for reading our series on the future of VRE!
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