Trump Wins Prince William: Examining his decisive victory in the deep-blue county

Donald Trump won his first victory in Prince William County during a dual Presidential Primary on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2023.

The presumptive nominee won handily in the county, with 60% of the vote, 18,768 votes. His Republican Primary opponent, Nikki Haley, won just three of the county’s 84 election precincts, 11,313 votes.

Republicans, or those who voted in the Republican Primary (Virginia law allows anyone, from any party, to vote in a Republican or Democrat Primary Election) in Precinct 615, dubbed “Commons,” at the Neabsco Commons neighborhood flanked by the Northern Virginia Community College Woodbridge Campus and Stonebridge at Potomac Town Center, thought the former South Carolina Governor would be a better choice.

Voters in the Antietam Precinct, number 514 in Lake Ridge, and the Potomac Shores Precinct near Dumfries also supported Haley.

Trump’s win in Prince William County marks a shift in the country’s electorate. In 2016, the U.S. Senator from Florida, Marco Rubio, won the county with 15,540 votes to Trump’s 15,348.

“There was little chance that the Republican Primary was going to be close, and Haley’s campaign was on life support going into Super Tuesday. The circumstances were good news for Donald Trump in northern Virginia’s outer ring suburban communities and elsewhere,” said Professor and Director, Center for Leadership and Media Studies at Mary Washington University Stephen Farnsworth. “Trump’s stronger performance in the suburbs in this primary, compared to his weaker performance in 2016, demonstrates that Virginia’s suburbs remain competitive.”

Prince William and Loudoun counties bucked the trend in Northern Virignia, which saw voters in Arlington, Alexandria, and Fairfax choose Haley over Trump. A total of 30,030 votes were cast in the Republican Primary in Prince William, compared to 18,608 votes cast in the county for the Democrat primary.

In 2017, one year into Trump’s presidency, Democrats came out in droves and flipped Prince William County’s reliably Republican Virginia House of Delegates and Senate seats from red to blue, electing a wave of new Democrats. While the trend has primarily contained, Republicans showed signs of life in the 2023 Elections, with wins for Delegate Ian Lovejoy (R-22, Bristow) and Erica Trendinnick, a Republican who flipped the Brentsville District seat on the county school board overseeing the second-largest school division in the state.

House Districts 21, held by Democrat Josh Thomas, and Distirct 22 held by Lovejoy, are considered competitive districts, according to VPAP.

“While only a sliver of Virginia voters participate in primaries Trump’s strong showing demonstrates that the most motivated Republicans continue to support him,” added Farnsworth.

South of Prince William in Stafford County, Trump won handily with 67% of the vote, winning 10,002 votes to Haley’s 4,488. Haley won zero precincts in Stafford County.

In the region’s cities, Trump won Manassas, Manassas Park, and Fredericksburg with 64%, 63%, and 50% of the vote, respectively.

Trump won Virginia, one of many states he picked up during the Super Tuesday contest. Haley is expected to drop out of the race.

“Voters are upset with the direction our country is heading in; for example, a recent Roanoke College poll showed that more than 60% of Virginians disapprove of the way Biden is handling the Presidency,” said Josh Quill, a 2023 candidate for the House of Delegates in Prince William County. “Republicans want lower taxes, safer communities, and stronger immigration enforcement, all things they experienced during the Trump Administration. President Trump enjoys an incumbent-like status that is difficult to overcome.”

Democrats came out in force for President Joe Biden, who won Virginia over primary challengers Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips, who won zero precincts in Prince William and Stafford counties, Manassas, Manassas Park, or Fredericksburg.