After Spanberger win, Virginia ‘may be on the list of purple states in 2024’

By Natalie Barr
Capital News Service

U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., stayed busy on Election Day, meeting voters at polling locations across Virginia’s 7th District in a closely watched race.

Voter Janet Evans did not expect to run into the congresswoman at Lewis and Clark Elementary school in Caroline County. Months earlier, she did not even know much about Spanberger, but redistricting had put Evans on the campaign team’s call list.

“I’m going to be 100% honest with you,” Evans said. “I was totally fangirling when I saw her.”

The elementary school where Evans votes is in Ruther Glen, a rural area between Fredericksburg and Richmond, or “a half an hour from everything,” she said.

Spanberger was very friendly, Evans said. She smiled a lot and talked with voters.

“It was very refreshing to see,” Evans said.

Although Spanberger did not win Caroline County, her vigorous outreach and her bipartisan appeal ultimately brought home a victory.

District 7 was the closest congressional race in Virginia, with Spanberger winning by a little over 11,000 votes, according to the Virginia Department of Elections. Republican challenger Yesli Vega won all counties in the district except for the one with the most voters: Prince William County.

Evans has voted previously for candidates she felt most aligned with, but rarely is she totally aligned with one candidate, she said. Evans felt tightly aligned with most of Spanberger’s policies, she said.

“Her belief on abortion rights,” Evans said. “Education is always a big one for me because I have a young son — and even her stance on police reform.”
Evans hopes Spanberger will continue to be a bipartisan member in Congress and work with empathy.

“I hope Spanberger will protect women’s rights to choose in Virginia and that she does not get complacent on that issue,” Evans said. “I hope she continues to support education and police reform.”

The congresswoman’s priorities will continue to be banning members of Congress from trading stocks, working across the aisle and serving as vice chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, according to Spanberger’s communications director Connor Joseph.

Spanberger will have new constituents for her third term due to redistricting.
Jatia Wrighten, assistant professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University, said Spanberger promotes policies for the Democratic base that some Republicans can also support.

“I don’t think there’s any need to change the types of policies she proposes or really much of anything because she has had a successful run to date,” Wrighten said.

Even though Vega did not win, she did well throughout the campaign, Wrighten said. Former President Donald Trump’s influence helped Vega’s campaign, and she fell in line with many “Trumpian” talking points, Wrighten said. Vega, who was endorsed by Trump, did try to distance herself from him after the Republican primary, according to multiple news reports.

Vega received backing from voters who still support the former president, Wrighten said. Vega’s background and focus on crime and justice appealed to many voters, she said.

“I think those three things really made it where she was a very strong candidate and why we saw her do so well against a pretty popular incumbent,” Wrighten said.

Vega was also endorsed by Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

A few hours after polls closed, Spanberger bounded onto a stage to declare victory as a crowd of supporters chanted her name. She noted it was a night for celebration and a time to remember the purpose of politics.

“Humility and empathy guided me into politics in 2017, and it has been humility and empathy that has sustained me through these years,” Spanberger said.

The congresswoman thanked Vega and said there is a need to support communities and constituents, regardless of political party alignment.
“I ask that you reflect on how we can serve our communities, how we can bridge divides and how we can show, through our actions, commitment to each other and the future that we want to create for our country,” Spanberger said. “I look forward to serving you all again these next few years.”

Stephen Farnsworth, director of the University of Mary Washington Center for Leadership and Media Studies and a political science professor, said it is tough to beat an incumbent, especially during congressional elections. All Virginia congressional incumbents won except for District 2.

“Incumbents have more name recognition, greater ability to raise money and it creates a very difficult environment for a challenger in the 7th District,” Farnsworth said.

The close results in District 2, 7, and 10 show Virginia is still very much up for grabs, Farnsworth said.

“We may be on the list of purple states in 2024,” he said.

Spanberger faced pressure as a Democrat, Farnsworth said. Voters generally use midterms to express any frustration with the president’s party. President Joe Biden had only a 43% approval rate going into the election, according to a Nov. 7 Reuters poll.

“The headwinds against the Democrats in the midterm cycle weren’t as great as usually is the case,” Farnsworth said. “That created challenges for Republicans in these close races where they fell short.”

The concern over abortion access energized young voters to the polls, Farnsworth said. Spanberger, whose platform included women’s rights, worked in the House to protect the right to contraception and also backed a bill to ensure the right for women to interstate travel for an abortion.

Republicans ran on economic insecurity but did not consider other issues that would bring voters to the polls, Farnsworth said. Democrats seized on the issue of abortion access in the wake of a Supreme Court ruling.

“That was very helpful for Democratic candidates in suburban districts like Virginia [District] 7,” Farnsworth said.

Vega did not issue a concession speech on Election Day. The day after, she posted a statement on Twitter.

“We gave it our all, but came up a little short last night,” Vega stated.
Vega called the loss “heartbreaking,” and stated that she remains committed to serving Prince William County through her work on the county’s Board of Supervisors.

Vega thanked citizens for their support, congratulated Spanberger on a “hard fought win,” and stated she looks forward to working with Spanberger.

Capital News Service is a program of Virginia Commonwealth University’s Robertson School of Media and Culture. Students in the program provide state government coverage for a variety of media outlets in Virginia.