A new 4th lane on I-95 in Prince William under review could benefit drivers and lead to compensation for Express Lanes operator

PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY — Officials are reviewing a project that would add a 4th travel lane on Interstate 95 south in Prince William County.

The lane would run from Route 123 to Prince William County and push back a bottleneck on the highway drivers face as the cross the Occoquan River, where the highway’s regular travel lanes reduce from eight to six.

The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) has included the project in its long-range “Visualize 2045” plan, which includes hundreds of road projects. COG’s Transportation Planning Board approved the 4th lane project for a regional air quality conformity analysis that will take place between now and October.

Laura Ambrosio from COG tells us:

The air quality conformity analysis is a federal requirement to ensure that the projects in the plan, when considered collectively, contribute to the air quality improvement goals embodied in the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. A series of tests are performed with computer models that predict how much mobile source air pollution will be generated over the life of the plan (through 2045), and how much the air will be improved by cleaner gasoline standards and many other factors.

Two models are used to complete the analysis. The first is the regional travel demand model, which predicts where, when, and how people will travel in the future. It looks at the changes to the transportation system that are outlined in the plan as well as changes to where people will be living and working years from now in order to anticipate future travel demand. The second is an emissions estimation model developed by the U.S. EPA, called MOVES2014A, which takes into account the latest developments in vehicle technology, as well as anticipated changes in technology under new federal regulations.

Prince William County Occoquan Supervisor Ruth Anderson is a strong advocate for the nearly two-mile lane and says it would go far to help relieve traffic on congested Old Bridge Road, the main thoroughfare through her district.

The new lane would encourage drivers to stay on I-95 for at least one more exit and then get off at Prince William Parkway, a six-lane road wider than Old Bridge Road that is designed to handle a higher car volume.

If built, the project could be a candidate for Smart Scale, a funding program where county officials submit a list of large road projects designed to relieve congestion and move more people to the state. The projects are evaluated and, if they score high enough, become eligible for federal transportation dollars.

Anderson said the lane could look similar to the red X lanes on I-66 that operate during rush hours. An overhead sign with a red X lights up when the lanes are not to be used, and the signs are lit green when the lane is opened to traffic.

Ambrosio says we can expect the results of the COG study this fall:

The analysis is complex and time-consuming and involves a couple dozen staff working at various times over a seven month period. The results of the analysis will be released for a 30-day public comment period at the beginning of September, and the plan with all the projects, including the I-95 auxiliary lane, is scheduled to be approved by the TPB at the October 17th meeting. Being included in the regional long-range plan and air quality conformity analysis is one of the many steps that a transportation project must go through before it can be completed.

The last major I-95 widening project in our area was completed in 2011 when a fourth lane was added to both sides of I-95 between the Occoquan River and Newington. The Purple Heart Bridge that carries I-95 traffic over the Occoquan was also expanded to accommodate the wider portion of the highway.

That project was completed before the opening of the I-95 E-ZPass Express Lanes in 2014.

Last year, we reported that any improvements to the free-use general purpose lanes of the highway could result in Virginia taxpayers forking over cash to the private operator of the toll lanes, Australia-based Transurban, Inc.

The payment could be worth tens of millions of dollars. 

“I’ve read the contract language…I don’t think there is any question that adding another general purpose lane to I-95 between VA-123 and the Prince William Parkway would constitute a compensation event and require additional tens of millions of dollars. Because of that, it is very unlikely that any application for funding under Smart Scale would result in funding without a significant alternate appropriation to cover that cost. It is important that we determine the actual cost of that payment so we can determine if there are a viable means of accomplishing a short widening I-95 south of the Occoquan,” stated Virginia State Senator Scott Surovell (D-36, Fairfax, Stafford, Woodbridge) in an email to Potomac Local.

At Transurban, there is no official number.

“Transurban is a long-term partner to VDOT, and we’re in the business of working with them to advance transportation projects, not stop them. We want the whole corridor to operate efficiently and believe the 95 Express Lanes play an important role in that,” stated Micheal McGurk, a Transurban spokesman in an email to Potomac Local. “The contract does give us the opportunity to participate in capacity enhancements, but ultimately it’s up to VDOT, the localities and the community as to what the best solution is. We will do our best to ensure the contract doesn’t stand in the way of improving the corridor. “

McGurk pointed to improvements to Interstate 395 where the company is working now to convert high occupancy express lanes from Duke Street in Alexandria to the Pentagon into toll lanes, as it did to the HOV lanes from Dumfries to Duke Street in 2014.

There, a fourth southbound travel lane between Duke Street and Edsall Road was added.

“…that was resolved in a way that protected Express Lanes operations and allowed the improvements to move forward,” added McGurk.

Surovell hopes that any negotiations between the state and Transurban over a new 4th lane in Prince William County could lead to the funding of new bus rapid transit service between the Woodbridge Virginia Railway Express station at the Huntington Metro station on the Yellow line in Alexandria.