Expect heavy winds, rain through this afternoon

From the National Weather Service forecaster’s discussion page: 

Large dynamic system poised to impact the Mid-Atlantic region through Tuesday…as surface low treks to our south across the Carolinas and then northeastward along the coast. Light rain already occurring over parts of the area…though steadier/heaviest rain pivots into the area from the south near and shortly after daybreak.

Guidance in reasonable agreement with shifting the heaviest rain across the area from 7 AM through 2 PM…with dry slot working into much of the area for the afternoon. Greatest rain totals expected along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge…as upslope enhances precipitation efficiency there (could see > 2 inches). Generally 1-2 inches expected elsewhere.

Not entirely out of the question to see a rumble of thunder in some convective elements across S MD this afternoon as weak mid-level instability develops due to cold temperatures aloft as upper low passes by. However, chances remain too low to add at the moment.

Also have strong winds to deal with. Winds have already picked up across the area with gusts already 20-30 kts. Winds will further intensify later through the morning and into the afternoon as sfc low nudges closer to the area. Wind Advisory looks in good shape to account for wind gusts in excess of 40 kts.

Lastly, some wintry precipitation could develop late this afternoon through tonight across the higher terrain of W MD, WV, and VA as the column continues to cool. Some uncertainty remains as to when this occurs…and the type of wintry precipitation. Could be a period of sleet/freezing rain as low levels cool slightly faster than mid- levels.

Increased snow totals a bit to account for greater faster cooling of the column…though…any accumulations will initially be hampered by warm ground temperatures. Generally 1-2 inches at the higher elevations with less than an inch elsewhere…though a few isolated spots at higher elevations could pick up a bit more.