‘Snow…spread into the area Thursday afternoon…greater coverage Thursday evening’

National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington, D.C. office forecasters discussion: 

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/…
Skies cloud up quickly on Thursday as a jet streak crosses the area. Guidance still suggesting that there will be enough upper diffluence to induce some associated precipitation. Thermally, this will be cold enough for snow. While there is basic agreement in this solution, there are some fine-scale detail adjustments/differences.

Snow is looking to spread into the area Thursday afternoon with greater coverage Thursday evening. This cycle suggests that the focus would be more toward the Potomac Highlands (a little further north). Then, as with the previous guidance cycle, there is a hint that there may be a shadow in the precipitation swath in the lee of the Appalachians, then redevelop offshore as cyclogenesis initiates toward Friday morning. The latest ECMWF really jumps on that scenario, with drastically lower PoPs that previous cycles.

Will maintain continuity from previous forecasts, keeping likely PoPs in the grids. Was willing to increase mountains to 80% as regardless of solution, some precip would bump into the ridgeline. Given these subtleties, the fast forward speed, and the low QPF, accumulation forecasts are challenging. Went with a solution that was close to not just WPC, but also the mean GEFS output…which approaches an inch (more in the Highlands near the nose of the jet streak). It remains to be seen whether any of this will affect a rush hour. Factors to monitor. Will maintain current course with the HWO.

Friday should mostly be dry, but cold, with the deformation band from cyclogenesis to the east and upslope to the west.

Update 

With snow anticipated to affect the Fredericksburg area on Thursday into Friday morning, Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) crews are applying anti-icing solution to high-volume roads ahead of the storm, including on Interstate 95.

Drivers are encouraged to pay close attention to news and weather reports, and prepare to adjust travel plans if road conditions become hazardous.

Before starting a trip, motorists are encouraged to check 511Virginia for the latest road conditions in their area.  

Download the free mobile 511 app for Apple and Android devices to stay connected, or visit www.511Virginia.org. Motorists also can reach 511Virginia by calling 511 from any phone in Virginia.

Anti-icing Treatment

Today, VDOT crews applied anti-icing solution to primary roads and secondary roads that carry heavy traffic across the Fredericksburg region.

Beginning at 9:30 a.m. tomorrow, crews will apply anti-icing solution to I-95. Trucks applying salt brine to the interstate travel together at approximately 35 mph. One truck travels in each of I-95’s three general purpose lanes, forming a straight line across the interstate.

Motorists should stay alert for this slow-moving mobile operation. Slower travel speeds are required to spray the salt brine onto the interstate with precision, and to ensure an adequate amount is absorbed in the pavement.

Virginia State Police will accompany the anti-icing equipment to assist with traffic control.