VRE to Haymarket: If you build it will home developers come to the Rural Crescent?

Those behind a study to expand Virginia Railway Express in western Prince William County say the region’s population numbers will explode.

The transit agency said it used statistics from the Prince William County Planning Office that show more 43 percent of the growth in the county between now and 2040 will be centered along a planned 11-mile extension of VRE’s Manassas line, from the city to Haymarket.

The proposed $550 million extension would have three commuter rail stations — one at Innovation Park, another at Gainesville near Virginia Gateway, and a terminus outside Haymarket.

The new stations in Prince William County would attract 5,900 riders by 2040, according to VRE’s numbers presented at a recent community meeting at Gainesville Middle School. The average cost to construct the line would be about $93,000 per rider.

“I’m not saying that the extension is not needed, but it is something we have to watch closely because the price tag is very expensive,” said Manassas City Councilman Jonathan Way, who serves on the VRE Operations Board.

Way also points out Prince William County’s planning office is one of many sources that provides data on population growth. The Weldon Cooper Center at UVA is another center that studies state population growth and statistics, as does the U.S. Census Bureau.

Bordering the Rural Crescent 

Statistics from VRE show building the new stations would remove hundreds of cars from congested Interstate 66. The proposed extension runs parallel to the Rural Crescent, a protected area of land in Prince William designed for farming and low-density housing.

Proponents of the Rural Crescent fear that if a new form of transportation is built, just as they do with new roads. housing developers might be quick to follow.

“All of those riders on the new line would have to come from somewhere,” said Way. “There is a lot of open space there.”

VRE states riders would drive up to five miles to access the new stations. Prince William Conservation Alliance President Charlie Grymes argues a better alternative is to relocate to building three new stations is to relocate the Broad Run station, and build a new station at Godwin Drive next to a new major development area in Manassas dubbed “Gateway.”

Grymes states VRE should then build a final stop at Innovation Park to serve a growing business district that also houses the George Mason University Science and Technology Campus.

“The Rural Area is supposed to be a zone of low-density development. Unless current land use planning is ignored to speculate on rezonings that would transform the area, there would be few (if any) economic benefits for a new VRE station located west of Haymarket,” Prince William Conservation Alliance Charlie Grymes.

New rail yard needs 

A newly expanded train maintenance yard would replace the Broad Run station. The maintenance yard would be needed to park trains and to repair them as the system expands.

VRE is also eyeing a rail yard site just across the Prince William County line in Fauquier County. Residents in that county would not be taxed to pay for VRE the same way Prince William County residents are unless a commuter rail station is built in Fauquier, said Delegate Bob Marshall (Fauquier, Manassas Park, Prince William).

According to a county land use map published in January, there may not be much appetite for growth around a proposed Haymarket station, planned for just west of Route 15. The county map shows a rural boundary line showing where development is wanted and mainly where it isn’t. The land use near the proposed station is zoned semi-rural zoning, which does not indicate a massive growth forecast.

Reverse shuttle service 

A total of 22 trains would run on a newly extended line from Manassas to Haymarket. A total of 36 trains would use the line if the new stations were built and a new off-peak shuttle train is introduced.

The shuttle would ferry passengers along the Manassas line between Alexandria and Haymarket during the day, also known as “off-peak” commute times. For the first time, VRE would be able to offer reverse service for those who go to work later in the day or leave early, but also for those who need to run errands, or for Washington, D.C. tourists looking to visit Manassas National Battlefield.

“If this model is successful, we could use it as a model to implement additional shuttle services in the future,” said VRE spokeswoman Christine Hoeffner.

The shuttle trains would not venture into Washington, D.C. as regular morning and afternoon VRE trains because there is not enough capacity along on the Long Bridge across the Potomac River between Virginia and Washington to accommodate the additional trains. A study to expand capacity on the bridge is underway, but there is no time frame yet when riders can expect that project to be completed, added Hoeffner.

Operational by 2021

VRE is still fine-tuning its expansion plans. The current study period that examines where the extension should run and what impact it would have on the environment should wrap up sometime next year. Next, the project would move into a design phase that could run between 2018 and 2019.

Construction on an extension should take two years, between 2020 and 2021. Once complete, trains could begin using the line in 2021.

Three more community meetings are planned to discuss the extension project. The next meeting will take place this fall, with subsequent meetings in spring and fall 2017.