Weather to Blame for Stafford Crime Increase?

UNLOCKED CARS STILL A PROBLEM FOR LAW ENFORCEMENT

By URIAH KISER

STAFFORD, Va. — A rise in crime in Stafford County during the first three months of 2012 could be blamed on the weather.

In the latest report issued by local government auditors (sheriff’s office stats on page 37), the county saw a 37-percent increase in larcenies – 519 reported, 142 more than the same time last year. The number of robberies in the county also rose 120 percent to 11 reported incidents, up from five during the same period last year.

This year, the winter months were unusually warm, which could mean criminals who normally hibernate instead took to the streets.

“Bad weather is law enforcement’s best friend because we do know when we have bad weather, colder weather, or inclement weather our crime rate goes down,” said Stafford Sheriff Charles E. Jett.

Jett directed his crime analyst to begin looking into the increase in February and what she found surprised him. Researching news articles from cities like Memphis, Chicago, and New York City, they all cited similar increases in property crimes all attributed to warmer winter temperatures, said Jett. 

In Stafford, the reported number of larcenies from vehicles and auto thefts also went up, and so did reported frauds, as did citations involving concealed weapons permits. There was also a slight increase in the per-capita crime rate to 1.31 per 100 residents.

However, other numbers fell as the number of reported rapes fell from six to five, there were fewer deputy assaults, fewer citations issued, and there were fewer criminal arrests, according to the report. One of the largest decreases was the homicide rate — down 100 percent as no homicides were reported during the first three months of this year.

Jett said if a 10-year crime study was completed, the county’s crime rate would still be at an all-time low. Numbers like these, measured over such a short amount of time, can often easily drive up or down percentage rates, he said.

“During the first three months of last year, we had five robberies. We’ve had 11 so far this year. Now, when you go back to 2010 we had 13 in the same time frame…they’re blips on the screen because they’re such low numbers there are many things that can influence them,” said Jett.

Increases in crime, as well as increases in calls to emergency dispatchers, have especially been noted in the county’s more densely populated areas. One of the largest problems county law enforcement continues to wrangle with is trying to convince residents to lock their car doors at night.

Twelve new sheriff’s deputies who graduated from the state’s law enforcement academy in December are now on the streets helping to combat the crime rate, said Jett.

Overall, the turnover rate among deputies has slowed from an all-time high about four years ago when a slew of Homeland Security and federal jobs opened up.