Intel Insights: Cut and Run in Afghanistan or Fight?

This week brought some sobering news from Afghanistan. The assassination of Burhanuddin Rabbani, a former President of Afghanistan and the country’s top peace negotiator with the Taliban, shone a light on the stark security challenges both the Afghan and U.S. governments face as we try to extricate ourselves from that conflict.

It’s hard for us to imagine a former president being assassinated, but that is exactly what happened here. The circumstances surrounding Mr. Rabbani’s death may never be fully revealed, but the story we know so far makes it clear that Afghanistan remains a dangerous place, especially for its dwindling cadre of leaders.

Mr. Rabbani had returned home from a trip to the Middle East after being told that two senior Taliban negotiators wanted to talk. He may have believed that he was about to achieve a major breakthrough in his efforts to negotiate with the Taliban.

Amazingly, he invited these people to his home, in a heavily fortified section of Kabul, not far from the U.S. Embassy. (Our Embassy had also been attacked last week.) The “negotiators” were whisked through several security checkpoints without ever being subjected to a physical search. When they arrived at Rabbani’s house, one of the men approached the former Afghan leader as if to embrace him when a bomb hidden in the man’s turban exploded, killing Rabbani and four others.

Burhanuddin Rabbani was a complex man whose interests may not have always coincided with our own or with those of Afghanistan’s current President, Hamid Karzai. He was a leader of Afghanistan’s Tajik minority. Rabbani almost certainly profited from U.S. aid flowing to Afghanistan. He may also have been a player in the illegal narcotics trade, but his earlier exploits during the war against the Soviets had made him a hero to many Afghans.

He served as Afghanistan’s President from 1992 to 1996, but was forced to vacate that office by the Taliban when they took over the country. He then joined the Northern Alliance, the main anti-Taliban group which was led by the legendary Ahmed Shah Massoud, a fellow Tajik. Massoud was killed by al Qaeda two days before the 9/11 attacks in an assassination that was eerily similar to Rabbani’s.

Rabbani’s death has all but stalled efforts to reconcile with the Taliban. It also calls into question the wisdom of publicly announcing the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces by 2014. Such announcements embolden the Taliban and their cohorts in the Haqqani Network, a terrorist organization active in Afghanistan and supported by elements in Pakistan’s government.

What Rabbani’s assassination and the earlier assassinations of Hamid Karzai’s half-brother and others show us is that the Taliban and their allies believe they are operating from a position of strength. They feel they can wait us out.

Contrary to some of the assertions made at Quantico, during the Marine Corps University’s 30 – 31 August symposium “Shaping for Successful Transition in Afghanistan,” the Afghan nation is clearly not ready yet to take over security responsibilities for itself, in spite of some of the progress that’s been made. It should be evident by now to all involved in Afghanistan that we have two choices. The first is to cut our losses and leave. The other is to hit the Taliban and their allies so decisively that they are forced to the peace table in a position of weakness. Such an undertaking requires some time and political and military will on our part.

Unfortunately, the only language these people understand is the language of lightning quick, decisive force. Failure to deliver crippling blows to the Taliban and their fellow travelers puts at risk all the gains we’ve made in the War on Terror, especially since the death of Usama bin Laden. Rabbani’s death is a wake-up call to the Karzai government and to us. The time for indecision has past. Let us finish the job on our terms so we can bring our troops home when the mission is truly accomplished and Afghanistan no longer can harbor terrorists who mean to do us harm.

Cedric Leighton lives in Lorton and is the Founder and President of Cedric Leighton Associates, a Washington area strategic risk and management consultancy.