Intel Insights: Qaddafi Toppled, Still Cautious

Like many others, I cautiously welcomed the news that Libyan rebels had finally entered Tripoli, the Libyan capital this week. Libyan strongman Muammar al Qaddafi and his forces appear to be defeated and after successful revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt, an unclear result in Yemen and a failed one in Bahrain, Libya is poised to become the next nation to undergo a major political transformation that we have come to know as the “Arab Spring.”

The toppling of Qaddafi is particularly noteworthy. Qaddafi was a predecessor of bin Laden’s. He established ties to terrorist organizations early in his 42-year reign. He bankrolled groups as diverse as the Palestinian Liberation Organization, its terror off-shoot Abu Nidal, Germany’s Red Army Faction, Italy’s Red Brigades, and the Irish Republican Army.

In 1985, Qaddafi’s agents facilitated simultaneous attacks on the Rome and Vienna airports. Nineteen people died.

Americans were fair game for Qaddafi. The La Belle Disco bombing in Berlin in 1986 killed two U.S. sergeants and a Turkish woman and injured over 230 (among them 79 American military personnel). Our intelligence indicated that Libyan operatives working out of their embassy in East Berlin had conducted the operation.

We responded by conducting Operation Eldorado Canyon, which destroyed 14 Libyan MiG-23 fighters, at least 3 transport planes and several major radar installations. Sixty Libyans, among them 15 civilians were reportedly killed.

But the most egregious Libyan terror attack was the downing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland in December 1988. Two hundred fifty-nine people onboard that London to New York flight were killed. Eleven Lockerbie residents also perished. I remember that event well because some of the passengers on that plane had started their journeys in Berlin, where I was stationed.

We kept a wary eye on Qaddafi for much of my military career. He was mercurial and unpredictable. Not only did he bankroll terrorists, but he engaged in efforts to destabilize neighboring countries like Chad, which had vast uranium supplies that would be of potential use in a nascent nuclear weapons development program like the one Qaddafi had. Qaddafi also had chemical and biological weapons at his disposal. We never knew how or when he intended to use those weapons.

It wasn’t until after 9/11 that relations between the U.S. and Libya began to improve and we established mechanisms with Libya to destroy or control his chemical and biological weapons arsenal. Qaddafi allowed these developments because he was afraid the U.S. would invade his nation if he didn’t appear to comply with international efforts to control these weapons. Some folks in our area helped track Qaddafi’s compliance efforts. They were part of the “eyes and ears” we need to watch over rogue actors such as him.

As part of the thaw in relations, Qaddafi also tacitly admitted responsibility for some of the terrorist attacks he had perpetrated. He did so because he knew or thought we had information that could implicate him in these actions. Finally, this past February, a defector from his government confirmed that Qaddafi had ordered the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103.

It’s hard for us to fathom the motivations of someone who would perpetrate such a large and varied menu of attacks against our interests for so many years and then stop those efforts cold. Qaddafi’s turn-about came too late to save him from the pent-up frustrations of the Libyan people. Let’s hope they never again let such an erratic despot control their lives and ruin so many of ours.

Cedric Leighton lives in Lorton and is the Founder and President of Cedric Leighton Associates, a Washington area strategic risk and management consultancy.