Intel Insights: Debt Deal Affects Belvoir, Quantico

With the stroke of a pen on Tuesday, President Obama capped months of contentious wrangling over both the national debt and how the federal government spends its money. As is typical of many compromises, this one did not really satisfy anyone.

The result is that many of the hard decisions needed to truly get our fiscal house in order have been deferred to a later time. In this case, that later time is Thanksgiving, when a “super-committee” composed equally of House and Senate members, Republicans and Democrats, is to make recommendations on where to cut the budget to bring it in line with the $1.5 trillion in cuts the new law calls for. If the “super-committee” can’t agree on where to make those cuts, then they will be made automatically, 50 percent from the “security” side (which includes Defense spending) and 50 percent from entitlements (like Medicare).

So what will be the local impacts of such drastic cuts? No one knows for sure, but a large part of what goes on at Fort Belvoir and Quantico has some pretty powerful supporters in Congress. The safest areas will probably be intelligence and cyber activities, especially as new revelations of past cyber breaches come to light like they did from McAfee this week.

Another area that I believe will be spared from most cuts will be health care for recent combat-wounded veterans. That will be key for Fort Belvoir’s new hospital, which is slated to take some patients from Walter Reed Army Hospital. Other approved Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) initiatives will probably continue as well. So will some equipment modernization and training programs. But this is where it will get a little tricky.

One of the areas crying for reform throughout Department of Defense is the acquisition process. While the new law does not specifically address this issue, the new Pentagon leadership would be wise to look at reforming it.

As they’re doing this, the new leaders should also look at what is known as the requirements process. This is where the field commanders tell the Pentagon what types of equipment and personnel they need to get the job done.

As someone who has worked these issues, the current acquisition and requirements processes do not work. These are two areas where the Pentagon can gain some major efficiencies, if it looks hard enough.

Some weapons systems will be cancelled or delayed and that, unfortunately, may mean that some people employed by these programs will be put out of work.

All the military branches are being told they must reduce their forces as well. The challenge here will be to cut redundant or obsolete capabilities. Personnel systems often have a hard time determining what those are.

Without a new strategy to give us guidelines on how we’re supposed to use our military, chances are many people will be cut who shouldn’t be. Military retirement pay and health care may also be in for some changes and these could affect our local economy because of the large military retiree population in our area. At this time, the magnitude of any of these changes is anyone’s guess.

Cuts in both the civilian and military workforces as well as in military retiree benefits can have a negative effect on our local economy. While in many respects this area has weathered the recent recession fairly well, this budget and debt ceiling compromise risks jeopardizing this region’s well-being.

Some key decisions will have to be made in the next few months. What they turn out to be will be crucial to the local economy. Let’s hope the best decisions are made, but it may be a bumpy ride for all of us.

Cedric Leighton lives in Lorton and is the Founder and President of Cedric Leighton Associates, a Washington area strategic risk and management consultancy.