Intel Insights: From Uncertainty to Victory

During this week of major historic events, it seems appropriate to pause and reflect on the one constant of war – uncertainty.

This sixth of June marked the 67th anniversary of the famous D-Day invasion of Normandy – a military operation that changed the course of history and helped set the stage for the development of a free and democratic Europe – first in the West, then, many years later, in the East.

This week also marked the 44th anniversary of the six-Day War between Israel and the front-line Arab nations in 1967.  The results of that conflict re-drew the boundaries of the Middle East and the ramifications of the Israeli victory are still being felt around the world today.

The strategies and tactics employed by the various armies in these two conflicts were, of necessity, markedly different.  Nevertheless, each of them had to deal with a high degree of uncertainty.

The forces that lessened that uncertainty were the ones that ended up prevailing.

The Americans and their Allies in World War II had cracked the German codes.  Their ability to read Enigma and Ultra messages the German High Command sent to its subordinate units allowed General Eisenhower to bring his forces to bear at decisive points and turned the tide of battle in the Allies’ favor.

The Mossad and associated Israeli intelligence services knew their Arab adversaries like the back of their own hands.  They prevailed in 1967, enabling a smaller state to leverage superior knowledge against several much larger adversaries.

While these historic examples demonstrate the old adage that “knowledge is power”, there is no time like the present to show us how true this old saying is.  As our Nation works to complete the missions in Iraq and Afghanistan, it is becoming clearer every day that any success achieved in those conflicts is predicated on obtaining what we now call “information superiority”.

After several years of trying, we finally achieved a sufficient level of information superiority to turn the tide in Iraq.  We are beginning to do so in Afghanistan, probably one of the most complex intelligence targets we’ve ever worked.

Decisive knowledge of enemy capabilities and intentions coupled with a clear understanding of our abilities and limitations will be the key to any success we achieve there.

The Marines at Quantico and the Soldiers at Fort Belvoir are key players in the effort to minimize the unknowns our forces face today.  We can only wish them success as they lift the veil of uncertainty.

Cedric Leighton lives in Lorton and is the Founder and President of Cedric Leighton Associates, a Washington area strategic risk and management consultancy.