Intel Insights: Military Attention turns to China, Pacific

The year that was, 2011, was a momentous one for the U.S. intelligence community. The 17 agencies that are part of it had their share of public successes and failures, just like in any year. But 2011 was noteworthy because many of the events our intelligence professionals dealt with will affect how we engage the world for years to come.

Usama bin Laden’s death in May, and the subsequent death of the American-born cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, both in intelligence-driven operations, dealt severe blows to the al Qaeda terrorist franchise. Although that group has certainly not been eliminated, it has been, at least for now, marginalized.

The withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from Iraq eased some of the demands on our military intelligence assets, but the advent of the popular movements in the Middle East known as the “Arab Spring” have made the need for robust political intelligence on that part of the world clearer than ever.

The Iranian crisis almost reached a boiling point several times in 2011 and remains unresolved. Iran remains committed to developing an offensive nuclear capability, no matter what they say publicly. Against this backdrop, Iran conducted naval exercises purporting to showcase its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil supply travels.

In the Pacific, the death of North Korea’s leader Kim Chong-il and the rise of his son, Kim Chong-eun, bring about new uncertainties as we try to find a workable resolution to the Korean conflict that is technically still going on – even after almost 52 years.

China’s intentions are as unfathomable today as they were a year ago. The Chinese are certainly becoming more aggressive in both the cyber and traditional military realms. Using a refurbished former Soviet aircraft carrier to project power in the Pacific, as well as exhibiting a tougher stance in the South China Sea and their prowess in the cyber world, the Chinese seem to be bent on challenging the U.S. in the Pacific for now. Perhaps they will do so globally in the future.

All of these events, as well as the federal government’s significant budgetary shortfalls, drove the president to unveil new “strategic guidance” for the Department of Defense a week ago. While the details of what the new strategy blueprint really means for the military and the intelligence community will have to wait for budget figures to be released (probably by January 26), some of its new elements are fairly clear now.

The U.S. will have a smaller Army and Marine Corps. It will focus more on the Pacific, without losing sight of developments in the Middle East. The new strategy also calls for the military to be leaner and more agile. It seeks to avoid “long-term nation-building with large military footprints”. That means the Navy and Air Force will bear a heavier burden relative to the ground forces.

The new strategy also emphasizes further development of our defensive cyber capabilities as well as greater investments in our intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities. That will mean a continuation of the trend toward intelligence-driven operations, which have enhanced our efforts in both Iraq and Afghanistan.

Locally, this means that the cyber and intelligence components at Fort Belvoir and Quantico will continue to have their plates full as they meet the challenges of implementing the new strategy amid the uncertain realities of our world. Challenges in the cyber realm, with China, North Korea, Iran, Afghanistan or even Iraq will not go away in 2012. The need for reliable, timely and actionable intelligence will continue to characterize military operations in 2012 and beyond.

Cedric Leighton lives in Lorton and is the Founder and President of Cedric Leighton Associates, a Washington area strategic risk and management consultancy.