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‘Any shift with the storm edge will greatly affect snow totals’

From the National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington office, updated 5:10 p.m. Friday: 

Not much on radar at this time, though increasing coverage over the Great Smokies is making the 12Z GFS look more reliable. The surface low is not apparent yet, but should be developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. We are on the wester fringe of this storm with the surface low remaining off the Carolina coast and pushing NE from off Hatteras. Dry and cold air being drawn into the storm will limit snow for a majority of the LWX CWA. However, after midnight, swaths of snow will overspread southern and eastern portions of the area. The winter weather advisory was expanded to include central MD as well as the central Shenandoah Valley. 12Z guidance went a little farther west and the western edge will be tight, so these areas were the greatest targets at this time.

Snow will taper off from the west Saturday morning through the early afternoon. Snow ratios look to be 12-15 through the event across the area. So any shift with the storm edge will greatly affect snow totals.

North to northwest winds will remain up through the night with gusts 25 mph. Min temps teens west and low 20s east.

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