Cost could outweigh benefit of expanding VRE to Haymarket

WOODBRIDGE, Va. — The cost to extend Virginia Railway Express 11 miles west to Haymarket could be as much as $660 million — about $60 million per mile.

That number brought pause to members of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors who on Tuesday said the costs of the project might outweigh the ridership benefits, and that could lead to the project’s demise.

Transportation officials last fall began a $4 million study on what it would take to extend the commuter rail line west of Manassas. While Haymarket would be the ultimate end of the line, the railroad is evaluating other options like building a shorter extension only to Innovation Park just outside Manassas, or one to two stations in Gainesville.

The cost for shorter track options ranges between $572 and $631 million. The railroad must add an additional track in the right of way it will use for its rail line expansion, the existing Norfolk-Southern freight line, dubbed the B-line. It splits off the main line near the intersection of Wellington Road and Prince William Street in Manassas.

If VRE expands west, it must also increase capacity at its storage yard at the Broad Run Station at Manassas Regional Airport, today’s terminus of the Manassas rail line. A new station would be built just east of the airport, possibly in the area of Godwin Drive and Prince William Parkway (Route 234 Bypass) at the new Manassas Gateway planned mixed-use development. 

The train yard would be expanded and would consume the existing parking lot at the Broad Run station. A flood plain behind the station prevents the railroad from having enough room to expand the station at the railyard at Broad Run, said Christine Hoeffner, whose headed up the westward expansion study for VRE.

With the enlarged storage lot, VRE will be able to increase the number of daily trains from 16 to 22. More trains would mean more frequent service, reducing average wait times from 30 to 20 minutes between trains on the Manassas line during rush hour.

While the costs are high, the numbers that show anticipated ridership growth following the expansion are small by comparison. Today, VRE’s Manassas line carries 10,220 riders. An extension west to Haymarket would net the commuter railroad 6,240 more riders by 2040.

“If money were not an issue, this would be a slam dunk,” said Woodbridge District Supervisor Frank Principi, who has long supported extending Washington, D.C.’s Metrorail from Springfield to Woodbridge. “The concerns that I’m hearing is the cost benefit.”  

Funding for the expansion would come from state and federal sources, and local funds. At $9 million a year, Prince William County residents already pay the majority of VRE’s local subsidy. That’s more than Arlington, Fairfax, Stafford, and Spotsylvania counties and the cities of Manassas, Manassas Park, and Fredericksburg.

The VRE expansion study also states that riders travel from western counties like Fauquier and Warren to the Board Run station to catch trains. 

“We see that VRE  riders ar willing to drive,” said Gainesville District Supervisor Peter Candland. “I don’t know why we would build another VRE station in the D.C. area unless you are building it very far away.” 

The number of local subsidy dollars that localities pay to VRE would increase if the extension is built, said Hoeffner. She assured Supervisors the cost of the expansion would be felt in places like Fairfax County, where riders would benefit from more frequent train service if the line is extended.

Hoefner also briefly discussed the potential economic development benefits of building new VRE stations in Haymarket, Gainesville, and Innovation Park. The population around VRE’s Lorton station increased by 43% between 1990 and 2014, according to VRE’s report. She added stations could support greater tax revenue, minimize sprawl, and conserve open space. 

But county leaders on Tuesday were far more inclined to talk about immediate cost taxpayers to expand the line rather than forecasting transit-oriented growth in western Prince William. 

Coles District Supervisor Marty Nohe suggested the county’s planning staff review VRE’s study and come back to the Board with a recommendation on whether or not to move forward with the expansion.

Two of the proposed four stations along the B-line could be built in the county’s Brentsville District. 

“I need to be really convinced that the ridership numbers justify the cost,” said Brentsville Supervisor Jeanine Lawson. 

VRE plans to hold another public meeting on December 7 to discuss the final findings of the expansion study. If approved, construction of the line should take about two years, with the line opening for service in 2021.